Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or campaigners want to engage even with the basics. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two articles that seek neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates encompass national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the idea that there could be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters report they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a feckless official who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed here and the other side will ultimately lose but all factions has got valuable insights to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
